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Monday, July 26, 2010

The Pre-Season Wrap-Up

This one is going to be big, in anticipation of being swamped by the start of classes next week, this is my big wrap-up, including conference breakdowns, my Heisman watch list, bowl predictions, and some week one picks. I will resume making my weekly top 25 lists once the games begin. We are two weeks from kickoff, until then, I may find time to actually write about something that isn't college football.

Before we get started, here is a recap of what I've already covered.

My top 50.
50. Tennessee
49. Temple
48. Tulsa
47. Texas Tech
46. Michigan State
45. Ole Miss
44. Purdue
43. South Florida
42. Northwestern
41. Notre Dame
40. Boston College
39. BYU
38. Arizona
37. Clemson
36. Air Force
35. Missouri
34. Georgia
33. West Virginia
32. Utah
31. Texas A&M
30. South Carolina
29. Washington
28. USC
27. Cincinnati
26. Auburn
25. Stanford
24. Houston
23. Connecticut
22. LSU
21. Arkansas
20. Navy
19. Georgia Tech
18. Penn State
17. North Carolina
16. Oregon State
15. Florida State
14. Iowa
13. Pittsburgh
12. Miami
11. Virginia Tech
10. Florida
9. Oklahoma
8. Oregon
7. Texas
6. Alabama
5. TCU
4. Nebraska
3. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
1. Boise State

Now here are my pre-season ranking for the Heisman trophy. My rankings are different than most, I don't care whether your team is a national championship contender or not, that does not tell you how good an individual player is so I won't use it. I do consider if the team is any good or not, if QB leads a team to a 5-7 record, then I'm not going to put him on here but talent trumps record.

1. Dion Lewis - RB Pittsburgh
2. Case Keenum - QB Houston
3. John Clay - RB Wisconsin
4. Kellen Moore - QB Boise State
5. Mark Ingram - RB Alabama
6. Cameron Heyward - DE Ohio State
7. Andrew Luck - QB Stanford
8. Jared Crick - DT Nebraska
9. LaMichael James - RB Oregon
10. Jake Locker - QB Washington

Also considered: Noel Devine - RB West Virginia, JacQuizz Rodgers - RB Oregon State, Stephen Paea - DT Oregon State, Ricky Dobbs - QB Navy, Ryan Williams - RB Virginia Tech, Christian Ponder - QB Florida State.

I was hoping to do a post for each conference and do a full break down but time did not allow, I only got to the PAC-10 and the Big 10, here are those rankings again, and a mini-synopsis of the rest of them.

PAC-10
1. Oregon State
2. Oregon
3. Stanford
4. Washington
5. Arizona
6. USC
7. California
8. UCLA
9 Arizona State
10. Watch-us-and-laughington State

Big 10
1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Iowa
4. Penn State
5. Michigan State
6. Purdue
7. Northwestern
8. Michigan
9. Indiana
10. Minnesota
11. Illinois

Without further ado, here is everyone else.

Big 12 South
1. Oklahoma - National Championship Contenders
Oklahoma is much, much better than last seasons record indicates, I foresee an undefeated record in regular season conference play.
2. Texas - BCS contenders
Until Mack Brown has a losing season, the Horns will be BCS contenders will be BCS contenders by virtue of being the Horns, this seasons top five start is proof of that.
3. Texas A&M - Definitely going to a bowl
The Aggies high powered offense should pick apart the bottom half of a very weak Big 12 this year.
4. Texas Tech - Bowling
There is talent enough for big things but big coaching changes make a bowl uncertain enough to be downgraded from lock status.
5. Oklahoma State - Toss-up
The Cowboys underachieved in their best chance to break out last year, a high turnover of stars from a year ago makes a bowl very missable.
6. Baylor - Not going to a bowl
Robert Griffin, you could have played almost anywhere in the country and chose Baylor? Better luck in the NFL.
Big 12 North
1. Nebraska - National Championship Contenders
The best team by about thirty spots in my rankings, there should be no drama in this one.
2. Missouri - Definitely going bowling
The second best team in a very weak North by a long ways, no expect Nebraska should even challenge them.
3. Kansas State - Probably going to a bowl
A lot of people hate this team but it overachieved big last year and has a stud RB. That is good enough in this crap division.
4. Colorado - Toss-up
This team is not very good, but with Dan Hawkins fighting for his job, I expect them to be a bit better than they should. A bowl is possible but far from likely.
5. Iowa State - Not going to a bowl
They are Iowa State, no one should ever expect them to go to a bowl.
6. Kansas - No chance in hell
The Jayhawks could not win a single game after September last year and that was a top 25 team with a senior QB and a head coach who had not yet been fired for abusing players. This team should be as bad as any other big-6er in the nation.
Winner: Nebraska

ACC Atlantic Division
1. Florida State - BCS contenders
The Seminoles will be in the conference championship game, so even with 3-4 losses, they are only a win away from the Orange bowl. I think the offense lights up the scoreboard enough to cover for a shaky but improved defense.
2. Boston College - Definitely going to a bowl
The Eagles are very well rounded but don't excel at anything enough for me to believe they win the division.
3. Clemson - Definitely going to a bowl
See BC, only a little worse on defense.
4. North Carolina State - Toss-up
NC State is as boring and average a team as you will find anywhere in football. They could anywhere from 1-9 games and I wouldn't be surprised either way.
5. Maryland - Thumbs leaning down
This team will be much better than a year ago, but don't see quite enough to go to a bowl.
6. Wake Forest - Not going to a bowl
This team is bad, not awful, but no where near good enough for a bowl.

ACC Coastal
1. Virginia Tech - BCS contenders
The Hokies will run the ball as good as anyone in the country, if North Carolina's QB play improves, they could easily grab Va. Techs spot though.
2. Miami - Definitely going to a bowl
This team could be as good as any in football if Jacory Harris brings down his turnovers, but since Ohio State and Pittsburgh are so early on the schedule, I see them getting roughed up before any momentum can be built.
3. North Carolina - Definitely going to a bowl
The QB play won't improve.
4. Georgia Tech - Definitely going to a bowl
The triple option will stagnate against better opponents with so many playmakers gone from a year ago.
5. Duke - Probably not going to a bowl
That word probably means that this is a better Duke team than usual.
6. Virginia - No chance in hell
They wish they were as good as Kansas.

Winner: Virginia Tech

Big East
1. Connecticut - BCS Contender
I know this is not the smart pick but years of watching Wanstedt coach is Miami and watching last years game against Cincinnati just last night keep me from putting faith in Pitt no matter how much talent they have.
2. Pittsurgh - BCS contenders
I think I said it all in UConns spot.
3. West Virgina - Definitely going to a bowl
The Moutaineers are likely to be in the conference title race until the last two weeks of the season.
4. Cincinnati - Definitely going to a bowl
A high powered offense keeps the Bearcats in postseason play but with a bad defense and a new coach, fans should not hope for much more.
5. South Florida - Definitely going to a bowl
The Bulls are as consistent as any team, unfortunately, they are consistent in winning early, losing late, and playing a bad bowl game.
6. Rutgers - Probably going to a bowl
Good, but not great at everything. They will win but will scare nobody.
7. Syracuse - Probably not going to a bowl
The Orange aren't terrible, but the rest of the conference is better.
8. Louisville - No chance in hell
This team is to Syracuse as Syracuse is to West Virginia.

SEC East
1. Florida - BCS contender
Even in a rebuilding year, there is a big gap between the Gators and the rest of the weaker half of the SEC.
2. South Carolina - Definitely going to a bowl
The Gamecocks take a big step forward this year, unfortunately, that only means second place.
3. Georgia - Definitely going to a bowl
Very good, but I just don't think they are "Georgia'good" yet.
4. Kentucky - Probably going to a bowl
The Wildcats are not an outstanding team but will capitalize on unsuspecting opponents as usual and should roll through an easy out of conference schedule.
5. Tennessee - Toss-up
With all the crap that has happened to this team since I put them at 49, they would be lucky to break an updated top 60, toss-up is generous.
6. Vanderbilt - No chance in hell
Last in SEC defense? Check. Last in SEC offense? Check. Winless in conference? Check. Head coach retiring six weeks before the season starts? Check. Ten bowl teams on the schedule? Check. A 0-12 season is a distinct possibility.

SEC West
1. Alabama - BCS Contenders
It will not be as easy as people expect, but Bama is still the best in the West.
2. Auburn - Definitely going to a bowl
The Tigers will make the Tide sweat it out but even with nine new starters, the Bama defense still probably beats the Tigers'.
3. Arkansas - Definitely going to a bowl
The Hogs will be improved and will surprise one or two teams that are better than them, but they will also lose a few they shouldn't.
4. LSU - Definitely going to a bowl
I can see Les Miles typing up his resume already. 8 wins is a given but 8 wins is also not good enough in Baton Rouge.
5. Mississippi State - Probably going to a bowl
The Bulldogs took big strides in their first year under a new coach and with a few nreaks on the schedule a much improved offense, they should see postseason play.
6. Ole Miss - Probably going to a bowl
There are no bad teams in this league, but Ole Miss is definitely in rebuilding mode even with Masoli. Still, I think six wins is very achievable.

Winner: Florida

Non-AQ
1. Boise State - National Championship Contenders
I just wrote on them yesterday, you know why the're here.
2. TCU - National Championship Contenders
The Frogs actually have just as easy a path to an unbeaten season as the Broncos, if BSU stumbles against Va. Tech in week one, the Frogs will just in to the national spotlight immediately.
3. Houston - Definitely going to a bowl
The BCS seems unlikely even with an unbeaten season, with two non-AQ's ahead of them, the Cougars will really have to impress if they want a chance.
4. Navy - Definitely going to a bowl
See Houston
5. Utah - Definitely going to a bowl
The Utes a far cry worse than TCU, thats not to say they aren't good, they just won't win the MWC.
6. Air Force Definitely going to a bowl
See Utah
7-10. BYU, Nevada, Temple, and SMU - Definitely going to a bowl
I had to list more than six team but really, there is no one great after them.

Have little spare time to sit and watch football this year? Well no problem. I have gone to the trouble of making a list of the best games of the season for you to watch, that way you can cathc the best ones.

Out of conference games

20. South Florida at Florida 9/11
19. Notre Dame vs. Stanford 9/25
18. Oklahoma at Cincinnati 9/25
17. Washington at BYU 11/4
16. North Carolina vs. Cincinnati 9/16
15. Oregon at Tennessee 9/11
14. Pittsburgh at Utah 9/2
13. West Virginia at LSU 9/25
12. BYU at Florida State 11/18
11. Iowa at Arizona 9/18
10. Nebraska at Washington 9/18
9. Oregon State at Boise State 9/25
8. Miami at Pittsburgh 9/23
7. Texas A&M vs. Arkansas 10/9
6. North Carolina vs. LSU 9/4
5. TCU vs. Oregon State 9/4
4. Florida State at Oklahoma 9/11
3. Penn State at Alabama 9/11
2. Miami at Ohio State 9/11
1. Virginia Tech vs. Boise State: September 6

And conference games

10. Alabama vs. Auburn 11/26
9. Virginia Tech at Miami: 11/20
8. TCU at Utah 11/6
7. Iowa vs. Ohio State 11/20
6. Iowa vs. Wisconsin 10/23
5. Oklahoma vs. Texas 10/2
4. Oregon at Oregon State 12/4
3. Texas at Nebraska 10/16
2. Wisconsin vs. Ohio State 10/16
1. Florida at Alabama 10/2

I am not going to make predictions for every bowl but here are the BCS bowls and a few select others.

Holiday Bowl: Oregon 42 - Texas A&M 37
Two high powered offenses should run up the score in what should be one the best bowl games of the year. In the end Oregon is better, but the Aggies offense will keep it close until the end.

Capital One Bowl: Alabama 14 - Iowa 7
As usual, th Capital One Bowl will feature two great teams who would rather be playing in the BCS games. A defensive showdown will be won with a late TD run by Ingram.

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma 27 - Georgia 10
The Sooners will be fired up after getting screwed over by the combined efforts of the BCS and Texas, and will take out on an overmatched Bulldog squad.

Champs Sports Bowl: Miami 35 - Penn State 20
The Hurricane offense starts clicking perfectly at the end of the year, its too late for the BCS, but not too late to make a statement.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech 27 - UConn 14
The Hokies have excelled at beating teams that are new to success all decade long, and Frank Beamer will be ready to do it again.

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State 27 - Florida 23
Two teams that believe they should be in the NCG, will put on a classic game between two of the best programs in the nation.

Fiesta Bowl: TCU 20 - Texas 19
After Oklahoma loses the Big 12 championship game, the BCS selects a Texas team that lost to them that now has the same record. Oklahoma will be furious, Texas will remind them that payback is a bitch, and TCU will attempt to make a statement which everyone will ignore while discussing the UT-OU rivalry through the whole game.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin 30 - Oregon State 21
Both teams are great but the Beaver defense will not be able to contain the Badgers all game long. John Clay has a monster fourth quarter against a worn down defense and the Badgers pick up their first BCS victory in a decade.

National Championship Game: Boise State 24 - Nebraska 20
I will whole heartedly admit to bias in this pick. I don't think I was bias in picking BSU in the title game, but not that I've done it, I won't even think about picking against them.

Humanitarian Bowl: Idaho 67 - USC 0
After years of being a punchline, the Vandals shock everyone with a second straight bowl birth and then make a HUGE statement by crushing the juggernaut Trojans, setting themselves up for a top five start and a national championship chase in 2011. Wait, what? OK, apparently USC is ineligible to play in a bowl this year. In that case, Idaho goes 4-8 and returns to their normal spot at the bottom of the WAC, which is now ironically the entire conference.

How do you get a Vandal off your front porch?
Pay for the pizza.

The teacher of a first grade class asked her students what their daddy did for a living. She noticed that little Billy did not respond as each student told about their daddy’s work.

Finally she convinced Billy to talk about his daddy’s work. Little Billy said “My daddy is an exotic dancer, he strips for other men and sometimes goes back into that backroom to have sex with men for money?! The teach says, “Billy, does your daddy really do that??

Little Billy starts to cry and says “No, I was just to embarrassed to tell anyone what daddy really does?!

Teacher: “What does your daddy really do??
Billy: “He is a football coach at the University of Idaho.?

Thank you folks, I'll be here all season.

Finally, here are some week one picks.
Pittsburgh 27 - Utah 24
Kentucky 35 - Louisville 13
Purdue 21 - Notre Dame 24
Connecticut 27 - Michigan 17
Kansas State 17 - UCLA 14
Washington 28 - BYU 20
UPSET ALERT: Northen Illinois 28 - Iowa State 21
TCU 30 - Oregon State 20
North Carolina 20 - LSU 10
Alabama As Many as They Want - San Jose State - 3
Boise State 38 - Virgina Tech 24

See you soon folks, I would love to hear some predictions from everyone else.

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