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Tuesday, July 20, 2010

31. Texas A&M

Rivals says: South Carolina

I say......
31. Texas A&M Aggies

It has been a long time since the folks in College Station have watched a relevant football team take the field in October. The Aggies haven't been to a BIG 12 championship game in a decade now, the south division has been absoluted dominated by Texas and Oklahoma since 2000. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have occasionaly been factors late in the season, but the Aggies have been closer to Baylor this decade than they are to the arch-rival Longhorns. Make no mistakes, the Aggies, although generally not as good as the Horns, have a proud history and expect to be the better team in the rivalry at least two or three times a decade.

For the first time since 1999, Texas A&M has a chance to revisit the days of relevance. Rivals had this team at 42, citing a weak defense for a low ranking. To this I say, "when has defense mattered in the BIG 12 south?" Over the last five seasons, the winner of the division has had one of the top five offenses in the country, defense hasn't been a factor. When Oklahoma went to the national championship game in 2008, they allowed at least 21 points in each of their last nine games, and allowed over thirty four times. The BIG 12 south is more shootout prone than any other AQ division/conference in the FBS.

That is why folks have reason to be excited in College Station. Colt McCoy is gone, so is Sam Brafford, and no one gives a damn about Zac Lee. The Aggies will have the best quarterback of any the major contenders in the conference in Jerod Johnson. Johnson threw for over 3,500 yards last year, and has a career TD/INT ratio of 53/18, despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the conference. The line is young and will likely continue to be an issue this season, but there is so much talent at QB and WR, that the passing game should be ever better than it has been.

The defense, well, it'll still probably be bad. The pass defense is especially terrible, finishing dead last in the BIG 12 last season, but I really don't think it matters much. Texas Tech had a similar team with less talent go 11-2 just two years ago. The offense is simply more important in this conference.

A 4-0 start looks likely for A&M, with the most challenging game coming against an Oklahoma State team that will be doing some heavy rebuilding this year. The schedule gets pretty rough after that, starting with a neutral field game against Arkansas that could very well end with scores in the 60's, Arkansas is almost the same team as A&M, but with a better quarterback. That will be followed by Missouri, Kansas, and Texas Tech. We aren't to the hard part yet. The season closes with Oklahoma, Baylor, Nebraska, and Texas. Sure Baylor is a laugher, but the other three are potential top ten teams, and are all better than the Aggies. Nebraska and Oklahoma travel to College Station, but I'd be shocked if the home field made much of a difference, if they can win one of these, it will likely make their season.

Times are starting to look better for the Aggies, but they are still well behind the top teams in the conference, after a few years of failing to make bowl games, a sewcond straight postseason game looks likely, with all but three teams in the Big 12 looking either bad or questionable, A&M is as safe a bet as anyone to be the fourth. best team in the conference.

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