I say............
24. Houston Cougars
Okay, raise your hand if you can remember the last time a C-USA team started out ranked in the top 25. If you raised your hand, you remember a time before the current line-up, none of the teams here ever have as a member of the Conference USA. The Houston Cougars are a borderline top-25er in almost every poll I've seen but they are certainly good enough to break the trend.
The team will live and die by the offense. QB Case Keenum has had more throwing yards than anyone in the nation for his career, led the nation by roughly 1500 yards last year, and this year he can legitimately challenge every record there is at his position. Many are predicting a 6,000 yard season, which is quite frankly insane, no in the NFL has ever done that even with a 16 game season. Keenum threw for almost 5700 yards last season and played awful in the Cougars bowl game, with a better effort this year, 6,00 yards will be eclipsed for the first time in history. The recieving corps will return two 1000 yard men from a year ago and the run game, well, it doesn't really exist so it doesn't matter who is playing that position. The line is average, but the offense is so explosive that it shouldn't cause any issues, it is about the same caliber as the one from last year.
The defense, well, sucks. Really bad. The defense was 111th in the country a year ago, and 115th against the run, allowing over 150 yards on the ground in every single game. The good news is, they won 10 games anyway, so it doesn't really have to improve a whole lot to win. The defense is bad, no doubt about it, but it should at least be able to rank in the nations top 100 this year, and with the way the Cougars score that is all it needs to do.
With a few breaks (Boise State and TCU losing games) the schedule is BCS worthy. It includes three teams from AQ conferences, and the good news is they are all winnable games. Mississippi State, at Texas Tech, and at Texas Tech. These are the very definition of mediocre teams, but all have the ability to make it to a bowl this year, if the Cougars win out, a trip to Glendale for the Fiesta Bowl is possible.
This season will be very exciting, regardless of how the Cougs finish, because so many passing records will likely be broken. The defense is too shaky to win out but a Conference USA title is my prediction, with a 12-2 record after bowl season.
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