The New Big 12

New Big 12? With all the recent news of powerhouses shifting away from the conference, one would think I would be discussing the new PAC-10 or Big 10. Go to ESPN, everyone will be talking about for weeks, but someone needs to talk about what happens to the Big 12? People seem to be assuming that with all the teams leaving that the conferenc e will cease to exist. That will not happen so easily. Big six conferences take a lot of time and effort to build, just ask the Mountain West and the Big 12 still has too many opportunities to make money and accomplish big things for them to just call it quits because they have run into some trouble now. The commish is as good as fired of course, but the conference won't die without a fight.

Before I go any farther, I should update everyone on what's going on today, as it was a huge day for college football news.

1. Nebraska makes it known they have applied for membership in the Big Ten.
2. Colorado has been formally invited to join the PAC-10
3. The PAC-10 plans to extend the same invitation to Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State soon.
4. Jeremiah Masoli has been dismissed permanently from the Oregon football program.
5. USC has received a two year bowl ban, reduced scholarships, and will likely vacate wins from at least the 2004 season as a result of the Reggie Bush investigation.

Big day huh? That changes almost everything about the landscape of college football after this coming season, with the two biggest programs currently in the PAC-10 being drastically affected by the Masoli kill and bowl ban for USC.

More important is conference landscape change started by Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are an outstanding football program and I see no way that the Big 10 denies them. With the Big 10 still undecided about how many teams they want to add and the SEC not really even having serious discussions yet, I think these 6 teams take off for the PAC-10. Additionally, Missouri is likely to leave as well, as they had been the only team to publicly staste interest until today and are high on the Big 10 wish list.

This leaves the Big 12 as the Big 4: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State. Three of these teams didn't make bowls last year, the only Big 12 team not on this list to not make a bowl was Colorado. Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas will almost certainly be the worst teams in the Big 12 this coming season. So why is the Big 12 going to be so keen to stay together? Basketball. Three of these teams were in the Elite Eight last year and Kansas, a persistent top 5 program, likely does not want to hunt for a new conference. All four of these teams have big markets still, and Baylor, while not historically successful, will be the only link to the market in Texas, the Kansas market is also huge.

So who fills the vacant eight spots? That is what this column is about.

There are three qualifications for the teams considered in the new Big 12: market size, athletic success, and geographic and cultural fit. So without further ado here are my eight picks.

1. TCU

The Horned Frogs are a natural fit for the Big 12, specifically since the South has always included exclusively teams from Texas and Oklahoma. TCU has had continuous success this decade in football, will help gain back the Texas market that Baylor can't retain alone. There is nothing there for basketball, but you can't get everything.

2. BYU

BYU has everything a conference would look for: great football program, a good basketball program, prestigious history, and the Salt Lake City market. BYU has been watched by many a conference over the years, and most believed that the PAC-10 would be going after them for expansion. The Cougars are not on the level of OU or UT, but should be a good replacement for say A&M.

3. Utah

See above, but replace A&M with Tech, and because of the rivalry with BYU they would bring at least one big rivalry game to the conference every year right away.

4. UNLV

This move is for the basketball benefits. UNLV has a greatly proven basketball program and more importantly for the money seeking Big 12 braintrust, the Las Vegas TV market. Sure the football is a joke, but they will not find any scholls out there with everthing. UNLV's basketball should provide Kansas with some decent competition.

5. Boise State

This move would be just for the football program, if they want to stay an BCS automatic qualifying conference they will have to stock up on the best teams out there. Boise State is the best program from a small conference left. Although BSU is only known for football, they do also have a great track & field program and a great wrestling team. Sure the basketball is a joke, but they can overlook that. The market is small but they would at least grab essentially the entire state of Idaho, it's not much, but it may be enough.

6. Air Force

A decent program in football and a huge, huge, huge market. If Baylor can get into a major conference, Air Force should have no problem at all. No sports powerhouses here, just a chance to grab a big money market, especially with Colorado likely leaving. This should help bring back some of the Denver market.

7. Fresno State

A big market with a lot of history, nothing really prestigious, but a big following gives a market worth grabbing. The football program is solid and could be even better in a big conference.

8. New Mexico

Only here because of their basketball success. Honestly, there are not eight great schools out there to grab. This team could easily be Colorado State, Wyoming, Utah State, or Nevada. Utah State's basketball team has been more consistent than any team from these other school but New Mexico or Colorado State have bigger markets (since Utah State won't bring much with Utah and BYU already in), so consider it a toss-up between these three. I will assume New Mexico because of geographic fit

So the new Big 12 would look like this:

North:
Boise State
Iowa State
BYU
Utah
UNLV
Fresno State

South:
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
TCU
New Mexico
Air Force

Do you think this conference would still be relevant? With Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV as successful basketball programs, is the conference still good enough to make Kansas stay?

And with Boise State, TCU, Utah, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Fresno State as well accomplished football programs, does the conference have enough legitimacy to stay an AQ conference?

These conferences will decide the fate of the Big 12. Of course they could always toss out Fresno State and New Mexico and go with a different 10 team format. Will this be enough to save it? I think it would, as the Mountain West Conference is already being reviewed by the BCS brass for AQ rights. With Boise State, Fresno, and the old Big 12 teams joining the powerhouses already in the MWC, I think that the conference, while still unlikely to be considered as a national title contender when compared heads up against the PAC-10, Big-10, or SEC, should be good enough to qualify for a BCS bowl every year. Especially considering the Big East still gets one every year.

They real question is will the addition of UNLV and BYU as established programs be enough to keep Kansas around. If not, K. State will go with them and the Big 12 will not have enough left to attempt rebuilding and a more likely scenario would be Iowa State and Baylor heading for the Big 10 of downgrading to the MWC.

Only time will tell. Personally, I hope it suceeds, as giving more schools a chance to suceed is always preferred to widening the gap between perks for big and small schools.