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Sunday, August 15, 2010

8-5: Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and TCU

Sorry for the delay in countdowning, I spent an excellent weekend in my old hometown visiting friends and family. I know you all must be dying to see my invaluable opinions in pre-season ranking, so without further ado.....

Rivals says: Iowa

I say......

8. Oregon Ducks
It's not very often that someone in the PAC-10 other than USC can say they have the best team in the conference entering the season. The idea of any team other than USC saying they had the nations worst offseason is also pretty ridiculous. The Ducks can claim the first and are not far behind the second. As bad as this offseason has been to Eugene, they can still hope for the Rose Bowl, unlike the Trojans. Star QB Jeremiah Masoli is now at Ole Miss, star RB LaMichael James earned a suspension, and so did a few other players, leading into today's featured joke.

Dad - "Did you hear about the new Oregon uniforms?"
Me - "No, I hate that they change them all the time."
Dad - " They wear black and white stripes, they shouldn't need to change them all season."

Thats about what Oregon has faced since January, regardless, the Ducks will field the best team in the PAC-10 this fall.

The offense is superb, while some worry that it could be a step slower without Masoli, hopes are high for Darren Thomas and my hopes are even higher for Nate Costa, the one-time heir apparent to the throne of Dennis Dixon. Costa was supposed to be the starter instead of Masoli, but multiple knee surgeries have held him down. If you have ever seen Masoli throw a pass up close, you know that it isn't pretty, spirals are not a given. If Costa starts, I doubt the offense will skip a beat. RB LaMichael James is on everyones Heisman radar after running for over 1500 yards as a freshman in replacement of old criminal LeGarrett Blount. The line is also perhaps the best in the PAC-10.

The biggest hole on this team is in the defensive secondary, which graduated (yes graduated, not imprisoned) three starters last year. The unit excelled at the strategy of "bend don't break" last season, and they will need to be more flexible this year. The PAC-10 is loaded with offensive talent, including two potential Heisman's at QB on teams that will be looking to snag OU's Rose Bowl spot. They are perhaps the largest team up front in the conference aside from USC, but there is not much distinction from any of the other contenders talent-wise.

The schedule is a cakewalk compared to recent seasons, there is no Utah, Purdue, or Boise State on the out of conference slate, instead they will face off against New Mexico, Portland State, and start the season against Tennessee in the Felon Face-Off presented by Handcuff Warehouse. They must travel to Oregon State and USC, but get the rest of the best in the PAC-10 at Autzen.

Prediction: Holiday Bowl, 2nd PAC-10.

Rivals says: Texas

I say.........

7. Texas Longhorns
As is customary when we agree on the placement of a team, I will refer you to a better review here.

Rivals says: Florida Gators

I say......

6. Alabama Crimson Tide

Okay, I know I'll get some grief over this one, but I'm sticking to it. How anyone can put this team at number one, where they are on virtually everyone else's list, is beyond me. I don't believe in just starting someone number one based on accomplishments form the year before, and that is what everyone is doing, because this is hardly the same team that hoisted the crystal football at the end of last season. Two years ago, LSU started out at 7 a year after winning the title, and they returned a lot more starters than the Tide will. Hopes are high, the talent is great, but any team ranked number one should have a very good chance at going undefeated and the Tide don't have the experience to do that against this schedule.

The offense is why everyone has them one, it should be the best in the SEC. Heisman winner Mark Ingram will be back in the backfield, as will Jason Richardson, and the Tide will have a returning starter at quarterback who is actually good. No one else in the conference can claim any of those things. WR Julio Jones is also among the best at his position in the nation. The line is also likely to be among the best in the SEC.

The defense is where that whole number one ranking falls apart, I don't care how good you recruit, no one can replace nine defensive starters from a year ago, and not expect to struggle. Of those returning starters, Marcell Dareus may see NCAA sanctions this coming year as well. This is a team that returns no linebackers and loses an all-american nose tackle. That is a pretty tall order for a team that won four games with it's defense in the fourth quarter last year, including one that was won by multiple blocked field goals from that same nose tackle. There is a ton of talent on defense but it won't all come together in time.

The schedule is just scary. No one in the SEC ever gets it easy, but this is downright brutal. Arkansas, South Carolina, and LSU are on the road, Florida is back on the regular season slate, and five different conference opponents will play the Tide following a bye. On top of all that Penn. State is on the non-conference slate, and an SEC championship game must be survived before the Tide can even hope for a national title appearance.

Prediction: Winner, SEC West, Cotton Bowl.

Rivals says: Nebraska

I say:

5. TCU Horned Frogs
The Frogs have a lot to look forward to this year, especially since they are not on anyones radar. Last season TCU looked dominant, even though the were essentially the targeted king of the hill among the non-AQ ranks, this season everyone is looking to Boise State, and the Frogs could sneak up on a lot of people.

On offense, Gary Patterson's squad will return all the key players from the conferences best offense a year ago. All-conference QB Andy Dalton, a dominant line, and a tough group of runners. There is no Heisman candidate, no real superstars, and no weaknesses. This group should find no issues rolling over the rest of the Mountain West.

The defense is simply outstanding every year, the loss of star DE Jerry Hughes will hurt, but it won't cripple. Patterson's defenses have been among the best in football ever since he arrived on campus, and with seven starters back and plenty of talent, there is no reason why it can't happen again. The Frogs have had the best scoring defense in the country two years running, and there are legitimate chances they can make it three in a row.

The schedule is pretty easy. It starts with an neutral field game against Oregon State, after that they will face one AQ conference team, and that team is Baylor. BYU comes to Fortworth, so the only conference test should be on the road at Utah, no one else is really in their league.

Prediction: Winner Mountain West conference. 12-0 Fiesta Bowl.

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